Abstract siRNA performance prediction calculations for a given siRNA may be divided into two broad categories: functions of the siRNA’s sequence, hereafter referred to as “intrinsic” properties of the siRNA, and functions of the target mRNA, hereafter referred to as “extrinsic” properties of the siRNA. When training a statistical or machine learning model to select […]

# bayesian

## Bayesian network modeling stock price change

Taking a cue from the systems biology folks, I decided to model stock price change interactions using a dynamic Bayesian network. For this analysis I focused on the members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Bayesian Networks A Bayesian network is an acyclic directed […]

## 21504 to 1 odds the sun will rise tomorrow: an illustration of Bayesian reasoning

The following preposterous case illustrates the Bayesian worldview: Prior estimate If you ask a mathematically-gifted newborn for the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow, they might reply: “The probability that the sun will rise tomorrow follows a beta distribution with parameters a = b = 2.” Since the mean of the above distribution is […]

## data scientist goes coolhunting…

Intuitive coolhunting scales poorly. Here’s some math to help fix that problem: Axioms of cool Five axioms enable us to mathematically model cool: No one is intrinsically cool, individuals simply channel it. Ability to temporarily hold coolness varies by individual. Coolness naturally flows into some individuals more readily than others. Rate of coolness flow into […]